Articles from May 2006

Resilient Stocks in Today's Market

There is an oft repeated adage on wall street, when they raid the whorehouse, they take everyone including the piano player. The recent market correction has been broadbased. But eventually when the market rallies, stocks which with stood selling will bounce back vigorously.

Stocks with superior earnings and growth will often correct with overall market correction. But if the underlying growth is not affected by market direction then these stocks find buyers at new level. Many times the current holders are reluctant to sell these shares, because they believe in their future prospects. The list below is what I am monitoring currently.

Watchlist

AMKR,Amkor Technology Inc
ARD,Arena Resources Inc
ARS,Aleris International Inc
ATHR,Atheros Communications Inc
BGC,General Cable Corp
CFK,Ce Franklin Ltd
CHAP,Chaparral Steel Company
CMG,Chipotle Mexican Grill
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
GDI,Gardner Denver Inc
GOOG,Google
HANS,Hansen Natural Corp
HNR,Harvest Natural Resources Inc
HOM,Home Solutions Of America
HSR,Hi-Shear Technology Corp
ICTG,Ict Group Inc
IIG,Imergent Inc
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc
KFRC,Kforce.Com Inc
KMG,Kerr-Mcgee Corp
KNOT,The Knot Inc
KNXA,Kenexa Corp
LDSH,Ladish Co Inc
LVS,Las Vegas Sands
NTG,Natco Group Incorporated
NTRI,NutriSystem Inc
OYOG,Oyo Geospace Corp
PWEI,Pw Eagle Inc
SWIR,Sierra Wireless Inc
TTES,T-3 Energy Services Inc
ZUMZ,Zumiez Inc
ZVXI,Zevex Internat Inc


Stocks down 50% or more in a month

DHB,Dhb Industries Inc
DOVP,Dov Pharmaceutical Inc
EGI,Entree Gold Inc
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FLYIQ,FLYI Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NTMD,Nitromed Inc
THLD,Threshold Pharmaceuticals

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

IFO,Infosonics

Stocks with all time high volume

CGPI,Collagenex Pharmaceuticl
RZ,Raser Technologies Inc
TRB,Tribune Co

Volatile market requires greater trading skills

The market have entered the high volatility phase and the risk is higher. In a trending market like the one we saw for last 3-4 years it is easy, buy all pullbacks or breakouts. Now a more selective approach is required. Timing entries and exits on both long and short becomes more critical in such volatile environment. Stock selection becomes even more critical. Risk management and average trade size and time frame all need adjustments. If you trade diversified basket of markets then there are great opportunities in other markets like bonds and currencies currently.

Stocks up 50% or more in a month
IFO,Infosonics
MED,Medifast Inc

Stocks down 50% or more in a month

DHB,Dhb Industries Inc
DOVP,Dov Pharmaceutical Inc
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FLYIQ,FLYI Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
THLD,Threshold Pharmaceuticals

Stocks with all time high volume

CMOS,Credence Systems Corp
LOV,Spark Networks plc
PBJ,PowerShares Dynamic Food & Beverage Portfolio ETF
XTLB,XTL Biopharmaceuticals ADR





Round up

Britain's most famous portfolio manager is a closet chartist.

The media-shy Mr Bolton, who runs £6.5 billion on behalf of a quarter of a million Fidelity Investments clients, said that he used charts to time his entry into some investments.
Chartism, the study of past patterns in stock prices to determine investment decisions is regarded by some investment purists as mumbo-jumbo and a waste of time.
However, Mr Bolton said: I've found charts very useful, particularly on bigger companies, especially for timing. When the technicals confirm the fundamentals, I use them in that way.
Charts were also useful in preventing him from buying into a blue chip too soon, he said. To be too early on a stock can be costly. It's a healthcheck. It's a bit like going to the doctor.


Easier it is to say a company's name, the more attractive it will be to investors claims a new reaserch.

All bubbles burst eventually. The newcomers to market take the maximum brunt when it happens. In the beginning there is shock and disbelief and then a hunt for scapegoats.


The newspaper industry is in trouble and long time bullish media analyst from Merrill raises alarm. Might be a good contrarian bet.

After writing about stocks for 28 years for Washington Post, Jerry Knight is buying his first stock at the age of 63. Imagine a food writer who does not cook and a travel writer who never travels.

The right stock at the right time

There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.

This applies to stocks as well. Look at the three stocks in these lists:
IFO,Infosonics, JOYG,Joy Global Inc and MT,Mittal Steel Company N.V. These three stocks I have owned and traded in recent years.

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

IFO,Infosonics has rallied back to its old high. Look at the fundamentals to get a clue about why this stock has rallied so rapidly. It has almost doubled revenue from 73 million to 143 million in a year. This quarter the revenue has doubled compared to the same quarter a year earlier. If you look at earnings in 2005 they were 44 cents per share compared to a loss a year earlier. This quarter earnings are up almost 4 fold. Very few stocks have these kind of dramatic growth. Look at MED,Medifast and you will see similar kind of growth story.
If you monitor just the top 2% earning/sales performer in the market and forget about rest of the market, you will find a list of stocks like these. These stocks are volatile but they make dramatic price moves when they get going.
IFO,Infosonics
MED,Medifast Inc

Stocks with all time high volume

JOYG, Joy Global Inc made a move from a low price of 3.42 to 70 in few years. Look at the earning increases:1.20(2005),0.46 (2004),0.17(2003),-0.20(2002). Now yesterday it had a all time high volume. This coincides with latest earnings release. Which hinted at earnings slowdown. The party is over for this stock now. Rest of its life it will spend basing or going down.

MT,Mittal Steel Company N.V. was a penny stock few years ago. It made a low of 80 cents. From that low it went as high as 40 in few years. Look at the earnings during the fast price growth phase of this stock and you will understand why.
The all time high volume is linked to the failed merger.

EPL,Energy Partners Ltd
GCS,DWS Global Commodities Trust
JOYG,Joy Global Inc
MT,Mittal Steel Company N.V.
PBJ,PowerShares Dynamic Food & Beverage Portfolio ETF

Stocks down 50% or more in a month


BCGI,Boston Communications Gr
DOVP,Dov Pharmaceutical Inc
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FLYIQ,FLYI Inc
LOUDD,Loudeye Corporation
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NTMD,Nitromed Inc
THLD,Threshold Pharmaceuticals

NOTE: To understand these list and philosophy behind them read following posts
The logic behind monitoring all time high volume
Why study stocks making 50% or a move in a month everyday
How I use the stock with extreme volume signal
How I trade momentum stocks
Tops or bottoms- it's a stock pickers market
How to find good stocks

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More proof of bottom



This is the cover of latest issue of Economist. If you are short run to get this issue.

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All time high volume in QQQQ and SPY signals end of market correction



The bears have retreated on massive volume. This correction is over for now. The QQQQ,Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock ETF, SPY,SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF and IWM,iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF all three had a positive day on all time high volume.

Many of the components of NASDAQ 100 have already seen buying interest for last two to three days.

Also notice OIH,HOLDRS Oil Service ETF had a all time high volume. Keep a close eye on this sector for further clues to direction.

Keep your watchlist ready.

Stocks with all time high volume

BUF,Minrad International Inc
EEM,iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF
EWZ,iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF
GGB,Gerdau Sa Ads
IWM,iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF
LINTA,Liberty Media Interactive Class A
MDG,Meridian Gold Inc
OIH,HOLDRS Oil Service ETF
QQQQ,Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock ETF
SBAC,Sba Communications Corp
SPY,SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

IFO Infosonics

Stocks down 50% or more in a month

BCGI,Boston Communications Gr
DOVP,Dov Pharmaceutical Inc
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FLYIQ,FLYI Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NTMD,Nitromed Inc
THLD,Threshold Pharmaceuticals


NOTE: To understand these list and philosophy behind them read following posts
The logic behind monitoring all time high volume
Why study stocks making 50% or a move in a month everyday
How I use the stock with extreme volume signal
How I trade momentum stocks
Tops or bottoms- it's a stock pickers market
How to find good stocks

Special offers:
Try Telechart now. First 30 days free
Get 7 days free trial of Trade-ideas

Linkfest

A business school in France is seeking a professor of Champagne

Driving around USA to find Top ten fast food.

The U.S. Postal Service is allowing companies to advertise on stamps.

Levi Strauss has designed a pair of jeans able to control a wearer's iPod.


Hedge fund manager
loves getting his hands dirty when it comes to digging for stocks.

A poker champion who makes 7.5 million in a year.

It would take UK credit card debtors more than 75 years to clear borrowings at an affordable rate.

It is better to buy the worst house in the toniest neighbourhood rather than the best house on a modest street.

Shaking hands with arguably the most powerful man in the world.

"Our customers don't know jack about IPO valuations. Quick--sell 'em stock!"

How to Set Up Your Own Hedge Fund

Fed Uncertainty Means Market Uncertainty

Move over "chick lit" , now there is "lad lit" for guys.

There are worse things a girl could say to a guy.

"The market will never rally again"

UPDATE: All time high volume in QQQQ and SPY signals end of market correction


Yesterday I got an email from one of the readers in response to yesterdays post.
"The market is not going to rally again. You are an idiot. You don't understand markets and keep looking for bounce. Learn short selling........"

It goes on and on about how we are doomed and how Bush has ruined the country and so on. I love it when the bears come out like this in full force.

The market action yesterday was disappointing. The market gapped up overnight but fizzled in last hour. There are several theories being talked about why it happened. The bird flue in Indonesia being the most talked about. You can never correlate news like that to markets action. Bad news in weak market is bad but the same bad news in strong market is shrugged off. Very bad news and series of bad news are also most common at extreme weakness level.

Some sectors attracted buying. This was mostly concentrated in the metals and energy sector. The ethanol stocks again seems to be in favor.

Market like this are good time to catch up with some readings and spend time on R&D. I have been catching up with lot of reading and will write about some good recent books I read. I have also been experimenting with new strategies using Trade-ideas and have found some good trading systems to add to my existing strategies.

Above all one needs to maintain sanity during such times. High velocity can play havoc with your emotions. You need perspective. You need confidence and conviction in your methodology. Backtesting can help. Market experience and knowledge of market history can also help .

Stocks up 50% or more in a month
All three plays in this list are related to strong earnings. HSR, Hi-Shear Technology Corp had a earning acceleration in recent quarter and is worth keeping an eye on.
HSR,Hi-Shear Technology Corp
IFO,Infosonics
MED,Medifast Inc

Stocks down 50% or more in a month
BCGI,Boston Communications Gr
DOVP,Dov Pharmaceutical Inc
DSCO,Discovery Labs Inc
EDAP,Edap Tms Sa Adr
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FLYIQ,FLYI Inc
FORD,Forward Industries Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NMHC,National Med Hlth Card
NTMD,Nitromed Inc
THLD,Threshold Pharmaceuticals

Stocks with all time high volume
PEIX,Pacific Ethanol Inc is the ethanol play. It also is experiencing significant sales acceleration.
AZK,Aurizon Mines Ltd
IWO,iShares Russell 2000 Growth Index Fund ETF
PEIX,Pacific Ethanol Inc


Stocks on my watchlist
The list continues to shrink. Those still on the list might be next to break down or in early stage of breakdown. Some are hanging on to their recent high and experiencing little volume. Those are the ones to watch for.

ACLI,American Commercial Lines Inc
ADLR,Adolor Corporation
AEM,Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd
AMLN,Amylin Pharmaceuticals
ANAD,Anadigics Inc
ANDE,Andersons Inc (The)
AP,Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp
APAC,Apac Customer Services
APN,Applica Inc
ARD,Arena Resources Inc
ARS,Aleris International Inc
ASPV,Aspreva Pharmaceuticals
ATLS,Atlas America Inc
AXTI,Axt Inc
AZK,Aurizon Mines Ltd
BGC,General Cable Corp
BGO,Bema Gold Corp
BMD,Birch Mountain Resources Ltd
BUCY,Bucyrus International Inc
CAMT,Camtek Ltd
CBG,Cb Richard Ellis Svcs
CCJ,Cameco Corp
CELG,Celgene Corp
CELL,Brightpoint Inc
CFK,Ce Franklin Ltd
CHAP,Chaparral Steel Company
CLG,Cumberland Resources Ltd
CMCO,Columbus Mckinnon Cp(Ny)
COGO,Comtech Group Inc
CTRN,Citi Trends Inc
CUP,Peru Copper Inc
DAKT,Daktronics Inc
DBRN,Dress Barn Inc
DCEL,Dobson Communications A
DMX,I-trax Inc
DNR,Denbury Resources Ltd
DRQ,Dril-Quip Inc
DTLK,Datalink Corporation
DXPE,Dxp Enterprises Inc
ECOL,American Ecology Corp
EMIS,Emisphere Technologies
EUROD,EuroTrust A/S ADR
FAL,Falconbridge Ltd
FJC,Fedders Corp
FMCN,Focus Media Holding Ltd ADR
FNSR,Finisar Corporation
FRNS,First Avenue Networks Inc
FTI,Fmc Technologies
FTO,Frontier Oil Corp
FWLT,Foster Wheeler Ltd
GAIA,Gaiam Incorporated Cl A
GDI,Gardner Denver Inc
GEX,Globix Corp
GFX,Media Sciences Intl Inc
GI,Giant Industries Inc
GIGM,Gigamedia Limited
GLBL,Global Industries Ltd
GLG,Glamis Gold Ltd
GMTC,Gametech Internat Inc
GORX,Geopharma Inc
GROW,U.S. Global Invest Inc A
GVP,Gse Systems Inc
GYMB,Gymboree Corp
HANS,Hansen Natural Corp
HOC,Holly Corp
HOM,Home Solutions Of America
HSR,Hi-Shear Technology Corp
ICCA,Internet Commerce Cl A
ICON,Iconix Brand Group
ICTG,Ict Group Inc
IFO,Infosonics
IIG,Imergent Inc
IIP,Internap Network Svcs Cp
ILMN,Illumina Inc
IMCO,Impco Technologies Inc
INB,Integrated BioPharma Inc
ISIG,Insignia Systems Inc
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc
ISV,Insite Vision Inc
JLL,Jones Lang Lasalle Inc
JOYG,Joy Global Inc
KFRC,Kforce.Com Inc
KNDL,Kendle Internat Inc
KNOL,Knology Inc
KNOT,The Knot Inc
KNXA,Kenexa Corp
KRSL,Kreisler Manufacturing
LANV,Lanvision Systems Inc
LCC,US Airways Group Inc
LCRD,Lasercard Corporation
LDSH,Ladish Co Inc
LMIA,Lmi Aerospace Inc
LNUX,Va Software Corp
LTXX,Ltx Corp
LUFK,Lufkin Industries Inc
LVLT,Level 3 Communications
LVS,Las Vegas Sands
MBRX,Metabasis Therapeutics Inc
MDR,Mcdermott Internat Inc
MED,Medifast Inc
MGPI,Mgp Ingredients Inc
MORN,Morningstar Inc
MOVE,HomeStore Inc
MOVI,Movie Gallery Inc
MTRX,Matrix Service Co
MTW,Manitowoc Co Inc
MWRK,Mothers Work Inc
NAVI,Navisite Incorporated
NEU,Newmarket Corp
NITE,Knight Capital Group Inc Cl A
NTG,Natco Group Incorporated
NTRI,NutriSystem Inc
NXXI,Nutrition 21 Inc
NXY,Nexen Inc
OII,Oceaneering Internat
OMNI,Omni Energy Services Cp
OS,Oregon Steel Mills Inc
OYOG,Oyo Geospace Corp
PAE,Peace Arch Entmt Grp Inc
PGS,Petroleum Geo-services Asa
PGWC,Pegasus Wireless Corp (NV)
PJC,Piper Jaffray Companies
PLLL,Parallel Petroleum Corp
PLXS,Plexus Corp
PMTR,Pemstar Inc
PSTA,Monterey Gourmet Foods Inc
PWEI,Pw Eagle Inc
RAIL,FreightCar America Inc
RATE,Bankrate Inc
RBAK,Redback Networks Inc
RCCC,Rural Cellular Corp
RHAT,Red Hat Inc
RICK,Rick's Caberet Intl
RMIX,U.S. Concrete Inc
RNOW,Rightnow Technologies Inc
RPRX,Repros Therapeutics Inc
RTI,Rti Internat Metal Inc
RTK,Rentech Inc
SA,Seabridge Gold Inc
SHOO,Steven Madden Ltd
SMDI,Sirenza Microdevices
SMSI,Smith Micro Software Inc
SNTO,Sento Corporation
SPN,Superior Energy Svcs Inc
STIZ,Scientific Technologies
STRL,Sterling Construction Comp Inc
SU,Suncor Energy
SUPX,Supertex Inc
SVL,Silverleaf Resorts Inc
SVVS,SAVVIS Inc
SWIR,Sierra Wireless Inc
TACT,Transact Technologies
TESOF,Tesco Corp
TFSM,24/7 Real Media Inc
TIE,Titanium Metals Corp New
TMY,Transmeridian Exploration Inc
TRE,Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp
TRN,Trinity Industries Inc
TSCM,Thestreet.Com
TTES,T-3 Energy Services Inc
TTI,Tetra Technologies Inc
TWGP,Tower Grp Inc
TWIN,Twin Disc Inc
TWTC,Time Warner Telecom Inc
TWTR,Tweeter Home Entertainmt
UPL,Ultra Petroleum Corp
USEY,U.S. Energy Systems Inc
USG,Usg Corp
WCC,Wesco International Inc
WHQ,W-h Energy Services Inc
WIRE,Encore Wire Corp
WWWW,Web.Com Inc
XTXI,Crosstex Energy
ZOLT,Zoltek Companies Inc
ZRAN,Zoran Corp
ZUMZ,Zumiez Inc
ZVXI,Zevex Internat Inc


NOTE: To understand these list and philosophy behind them read following posts
The logic behind monitoring all time high volume
Why study stocks making 50% or a move in a month everyday
How I use the stock with extreme volume signal
How I trade momentum stocks
Tops or bottoms- it's a stock pickers market
How to find good stocks

Special offers:
Try Telechart now. First 30 days free
Get 7 days free trial of Trade-ideas

Ready for the next market move

When the US markets sneeze, others catch cold. A policy decision in USA about interest rates is playing havoc with the emerging markets. International diversification of your portfolio was the latest buzz for many investment advisors and portfolio managers. The theory was that the US has structural problems with its deficit and so the international markets were safe heaven. Another theme which people had digested and started believing in was commodities. Everyone has discovered that when the market tumbles there are no safe heavens.

GS, Goldman Sachs Group Inc pushed for the BRIC economies in 2003 and they were right about it. But now these market have taken big hits. The suddenness and speed of the decline has caught many people in wrong position.

A 10% down move in market after a long move is just a healthy correction. Now Goldman Sachs analyst are calling this correction a result of " Bernanke Bind". The hypothesis is that he is underestimating the risk of inflation. Plus he has the credibility problem after his famous fling with Maria Bartiromo.


Now that everyone is convinced crash is just a matter of time, the market will have its own agenda and will not follow the anticipated script. So a tradeable bounce is the next likely move. I am nibbling at some longs and all ready with my buylist once the market tips it hand this week.

When the market bounces back new themes will emerge. Some stocks in beaten down technology sector look attractive and have not been dented by the correction. Keep an eye on GOOG and AAPL


Stocks up 50% or more in a month

IFO,Infosonics
LBY,Libbey Inc
MED,Medifast Inc

Stocks down 50% or more in a month

EDAP,Edap Tms Sa Adr
ERS,Empire Resources
ESCL,Escala Group Inc
FORD,Forward Industries Inc
NBIX,Neurocrine Biosciences
NMHC,National Med Hlth Card

Stock with all time high volume
ARWR,Arrowhead Research Corp
BWCF,Bwc Financial Corp
CORE,Core-Mark Holding Company Inc
CURN,Curon Medical Inc
EEM,iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF
EWT,iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund ETF
EWW,iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund ETF
EWY,iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF
EWZ,iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF
FXI,iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund ETF
GGY,Compagnie Generale De Ge
IFN,India Fund
ILF,iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund ETF
ITU,Banco Itau S A Adr
JAMS,Jameson Inns Inc
MTU,Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc
TRID,Trident Microsystems Inc

Going long

Market opened ugly today but by end of day found buyers. I am putting capital back to work on long side. I am looking at number of earnings play and many signaled entry today. Feels like a tradeable bounce is developing.

Police on alert for suicides after stocks slide

The Indian stock market has crashed trapping many over eager bulls. The Indian market has a history of crashes. The regulations are lax and seldom enforced leading to periodic scandals.

Mumbai, May 22: Police are watching out for possible suicides by brokers and investors after a steep market slide wiped out billions of dollars in share values, officials said on Monday.

Policemen were keeping a watch near lakes and canals, possible places where people in distress could head to kill themselves. They said rescue teams were on alert.

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