Articles from Oct 2007

Big Moves

Some big movers from yesterday:

AATI,Advanced Analogic Technologies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ACTU,Actuate Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
AG,Agco Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
AMED,Amedisys Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ATHR,Atheros Communications Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CFSG,China Fire & Security Group` Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CPHD,Cepheid (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ELMG,Ems Technologies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FELE,Franklin Electric Co Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ININ,Interactive Intelligence (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IVC,Invacare Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
LPX,Louisiana-Pacific Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
LUNA,Luna Innovations Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PWRD,Perfect World Co Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SEPR,Sepracor Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SKS,Saks Holdings Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SNWL,Sonicwall Incorporated (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SSRX,3Sbio Inc Ads (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TXRH,Texas Roadhouse Inc Cl A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
UA,Under Armour Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
WATG,Wonder Auto Technology Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
XRA,Exeter Resource Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart


Out of this AATI ACTU AG AMED ATHR ELMG SNWL SSRX TXRH UA , have recent catalyst. This being earnings season in many of these cases the catalyst is earnings.

Methods and Philosophy Blog:
Trading Big Moves

Market weakness creates opportunities in IBD 100

As the overall market consolidated for some weeks, many stocks in IBD 100 pulled back. Now some of them are breaking out. Now those who are following the one month weakness to time entry in IBD 100 system which I talked about couple of times last month would find many attractive breakouts.

CRNT,Ceragon Networks Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CTRP,Ctrip.com International (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CYNO,Cynosure Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FMCN,Focus Media Holding Ltd ADR (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FSTR,L.B. Foster Co Cl A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GRMN,Garmin Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SNHY,Sun Hydraulics Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SYNA,Synaptics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TDG,TransDigm Group Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)

These stocks have a 4% breakout plus month price growth of less than 10%.
You get best results for IBD 100, IBD 200 or Double Trouble system after a overall market weakness. Overall market weakness acts as a drag on high performing momentum stocks, where they have orderly pullback, once the market starts rallying again, they rebound. For playing the swing, that is the sweet spot for low risk entry.

Do you know him- the worlds richest person


With the Mumbai Sensex crossing 20000 level yesterday, Mukesh Ambani for the time being is the richest person in the world.

Billionaire Mukesh Ambani on Monday became the richest person in the world, surpassing American software czar Bill Gates, Mexican business tycoon Carlos Slim Helu and famous investment guru Warren Buffett, courtesy the bull run in the stock market.

Following a strong share price rally today in his three group companies - India's most valued firm Reliance Industries , Reliance Petroleum and Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd - the net worth of Mukesh Ambani rose to $63.2 billion (Rs 2,49,108 crore).

In comparison, the net worth of both Gates and Slim is estimated to be slightly lower at around $62.29 billion each, with Slim leading among the two by a narrow margin.

Earnings trends

At the beginning of every earnings season, bears put forth the argument, earnings are going to be bad, for over 20 quarters they have been wrong. See the current earnings trends from Zacks.

So far, 37% of the S&P 500 firms have reported (185 companies). The results have been better than most have feared, and over the past few days the results have been getting better. The median year-over-year growth rate has climbed sharply. We are now back in double digits, which if maintained would make this the 21st straight quarter of double-digit growth. Just last week, the median growth rate stood at 7.14%, the surprise ratio at 2.1:1 and a median surprise of 2.90%. Well, in just a few days, the median growth has jumped to 10.6%, and the surprise ratio to 2.56:1. The median surprise has declined slightly to 2.70%, but that is still a very healthy level. While the surprise ratio is still below the 3:1 that we have come to expect, it is not that far away anymore.

Every sector now has more positive than negative surprises. Energy is now in the lead with 25.8% median year over year growth. That, however, should fade since the unreported firms in the sector have a median expected growth rate of -7.3%. Both Energy and Telecom, which holds the number two slot on the leader board, have had relatively few companies report.

Health Care might be having the most impressive earnings season overall, with a median growth rate of 18.7%, a surprise ratio of 4.67:1 and a median surprise of 3.30%.

The Little Book That Makes You Rich

CXO Advisory group has done a chapter by chapter summary of The Little Book That Makes You Rich: A Proven Market-Beating Formula for Growth Investing, Louis Navellier. I am currently reading this book. The CXO summary is excellent. While on that blog check out their other stuff. It is one of the best source for proven strategies and insight in to latest research.

In his 2007 book The Little Book That Makes You Rich: A Proven Market-Beating Formula for Growth Investing, Louis Navellier, Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Navellier & Associates, Inc., outlines his systematic approach to investing in timely growth stocks. This approach derives from his analysis-based belief that the market does not efficiently incorporate key indicators of growth into stock prices. Here is a chapter-by-chapter review of some of the key points in this book, along with some links to relevant research summaries:

Bottom Performing Stocks in S&P

ABK,Ambac Financial Group (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BC,Brunswick Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CC,Circuit Cty Strs Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CFC,Countrywide Financial (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CIT,Cit Group Cl A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
COH,Coach Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CTX,Centex Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DDS,Dillard's Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
DHI,D.R. Horton Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ETFC,E Trade Financial Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FHN,First Horizon Natl (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FITB,Fifth Third Bancorp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HAR,Harman Internat Ind Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
JNY,Jones Apparel Group Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
KBH,Kb Home (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
KG,King Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
LEN,Lennar Corp Cl A (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MCO,Moody's Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MTG,Mgic Investments Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ODP,Office Depot Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PHM,Pulte Homes Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RSH,Radioshack Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SOV,Sovereign Bancorp Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TER,Teradyne Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
THC,Tenet Healthcare Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TSN,Tyson Foods Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
WM,Washington Mutual Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart

Top performing stocks in S&P

That looks like a very good breakout on WFR after long consolidation. It is a play on alternative energy sector.

AAPL,Apple Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AMZN,Amazon.Com Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
APOL,Apollo Group Inc Cl A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BIIB,Biogen Idec Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BTU,Peabody Energy (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CIEN,Ciena Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CNX,Consol Energy Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EMC,Emc Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FCX,Freeport Mcmoran C&G B (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FLR,Fluor Corp (New) (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GOOG,Google (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
JNS,Janus Capital Group Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LUK,Leucadia National Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MON,Monsanto Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MUR,Murphy Oil Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NOV,National Oilwell Varco Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
OXY,Occidental Petro Cp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TAP,Molson Coors Brewing Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TSO,Tesoro Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WAT,Waters Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WFR,Memc Electronic Material (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
YHOO,Yahoo! Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)

Top and Bottom Sectors

Top Sectors
Agricultural Chemicals
Major Integrated Oil & Gas
Independent Oil & Gas
Steel & Iron
Copper
Industrial Metals & Minerals
Gold
Silver
Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
Farm Products
Beverages-Soft Drinks
Music & Video Stores
Education & Training Services
Technical Services
Personal Computers
Data Storage Devices
Computer Peripherals
Scientific & Technical Instr
Wireless Communications
Telecom Services-Foreign
Internet Information Providers

Bottom Sectors

Sporting Goods
Confectioners
Regional-Mid Atlantic Banks
Regional-Southeast Banks
Regional-Pacific Banks
Savings & Loans
Credit Services
Surety & Title Insurance
Mortgage Investment
Health Care Plans
Hospitals
Residential Construction
Cement
General Building Materials
Catv Systems
Home Improvement Stores
Home Furnishing Stores
Sporting Goods Stores
Apparel Stores
Building Materials Wholesale
Computer Based Systems
Information Technology Service
Semiconductor-Memory Chips
Semiconductor-Equipment & Mate

It is all about techs

The market is at interesting crossroads. The correction in progress is leading to lot of stocks breaking down. While at the same time there is clear and visible rotation in to technology stocks and growth stocks. Good earnings are being handsomely rewarded. The question is , can a narrow focused rally continue. Yes, in the past such rallies have persisted much longer than anyone anticipated.

The shorter term picture looks risky because of daily gyrations and lot of selling in numbers of stocks with individual issues or those which had peaked in their earnings. So short term how much selling is still their is the question. Yesterday the market reversed again after a dose of morning selling. That strength has to persist in to broader reversal. Today the market has a catalyst in the form of MSFT earnings to take us higher.

The weakness of 5-6 days has set us up for a possible bounce. The FOMC meeting will be eagerly watched and market participants will try and position themselves ahead of that event. Given current conditions a rally in to that period or post that period is likely scenario.

But till the market tips its hand preserving capital is important, because any more selling at this stage sets us for accelerated selling in many names. So overall many of my short term indicators or Market Monitor are at stage where they look risky for market, but longer term indicators are still in positive territory.

I very much see the same thing as Wishing Wealth sees:

The GMI rose to 5 (of 6) and the GMI-R to 90%. There were 189 new highs and 165 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks. But my very short term indicators look horrendous with only 13% being positive. A close of the QQQQ below 52 would be a serious break in support. If the bounce in the QQQQ from MSFT's rise does not keep the QQQQ up on Friday, I will become very defensive. Something about this market really bothers me. Can techs continue to resist the downward momentum in the other stocks? Or will another reduction in interest rates by the Fed next week bring them all back? I still think the best place to be right now is mainly in cash.

Trouble Brewing

Market has not been acting well. It is extremely tough environment to trade in . Unless you are in it for very short term trades and earnings trade, most things are not working.


We are possibly heading in to trouble. The Episodic Pivots on bearish side are fast rising today with several stocks falling more than 8%. As of now there are around 90 EP's on bearish side.

The stocks up 25% in month ratio is about to turn. This does not look good. Often it signals downturn. Stocks down 50% plus in month is rising.

The action does not feel and look good. So better to protect capital and fight this battle another day.

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