Articles from Oct 2010

Daily Market Analysis Oct 27, 2010 Video

Daily Market Analysis Oct 26, 2010 Video

Daily Market Analysis Oct 22, 2010 Video

Top 25 Breakout Oct21 Video

In search of good setups Oct20

Daily Market Analysis Oct 20, 2010 Video

Daily Market Analysis Oct 19, 2010 Video

A long video after a few weeks of giving you people chance to do your own analysis.

Why I study stocks up 25% plus in a month everyday

 

TZOO- Travelzoo Inc

 

Come rain or shine, everyday the last thing I do in my daily market analysis routine is to run a scan for stocks up 25% plus in a month. I run the scan, boil myself a pot of tea and systematically study each of them. I want to know:

 

  1.  what makes a stock go up 25% plus in a month. 
  2. How does it start the move
  3. What are the volume patterns during the move
  4. What are the price patterns during the move
  5. What was its momentum ranking before the move started
  6. How did its momentum ranking progress during the move
  7. What kind of pullback did it have
  8. In how many days did it make 25% plus move
  9. What is its float
  10. What was its dollar volume at breakout
  11. What was its p/e, p/s, roi, margin, p/b, peg, debt to equity, 
  12. What was their eps growth
  13. What was their sales growth
  14. What was their IBD ranking
  15. How far are they from 52 week high or low
  16. What was its price trend for last 1, 3, 5 years
  17. What was their sector relative strength
  18. What was their short interest
  19. What was the insider buying trend
  20. What was the trend intensity readings at breakout
  21. How did the trend intensity readings progressed
  22. What was the news on the stock for last one month
  23. How far is this stock from last earnings or upcoming earnings
  24. When did the stock IPO
  25. 25 What is its fund holding trend
and so on. 
 
All this information is publicly available freely. The tools I use to do this analysis are:
  1. Finviz
  2. Moneycentral
  3. Google Finance
  4. Dailygraphs
  5. Investor.com
On most days there are not many stocks meeting this condition so it takes 15 minutes to do it. Once in a while you get 200 plus stocks, then it takes a hour to do this.
 
The objective is clear to develop a model of stocks that make big move in short period of time and try and capture couple of moves in a year. The understanding from the exercise goes in to building better scanning criteria and validating or invalidating commonly touted trading wisdom or beliefs.
 
You will find answer to questions like :
  1. does significant earnings surprise move stock
  2. does nearness to 52 week high matter
  3. should you focus on high priced or low priced stocks
  4. should you focus on high daily average volume stocks or low daily average volume stocks
  5. does IBD eps ratings matter
  6. does float matter
  7. what period relative strength/momentum  is best 
  8. why prior period gains are most critical to picking winners
While it is difficult to generalize things because every phase of market has different kind of stocks making 25% plus moves, there are certain common themes you can find and the common themes in terms of factors that drive a stock to make 25% plus move in a month are:
  1. Prior neglect
  2. Catalyst. Big moves start with some catalyst.
  3. Sector momentum is best predictor of short term probability of a stock making a big move
  4. Price momentum is next most important criteria
  5. Float, low price, low dollar volume prior to breakout are good
Rest of the factor really do not matter. In the short run fundamental factors do not matter. Immediate catalyst and sector momentum is most critical factors on a month time frame. 
 
How can you use this information in day to day trading. Focus on stocks with high sector momentum or sector catalyst (Bluefin Sector+price momentum and Emerging Opportunities scans). Focus on stock with immediate catalyst (Episodic Pivots). All things being equal low priced, low dollar volume and low float stocks tend to make biggest move.
 
But above all almost every move of 25% plus in magnitude in a month starts with a 4% breakout signal. Now how valuable is that information to you if you know how to exploit it.....
 

 

 

Stocks up 25% plus in a month:

 

ACAT,Arctic Cat Inc

ACTG,Acacia Research Acacia Tech

ACTL,Actel Corp

AMKR,Amkor Technology Inc

APAGF,Apco Oil & Gas International

APEI,American Public Education` Inc

AREX,Approach Resources Inc.

ARII,American Railroad Industries Inc

ATML,Atmel Corp

AUMN,Golden Minerals Co

AVEO,AVEO Pharmaceuticals Inc

BAK,Braskem Sa

BCPC,Balchem Corp

BID,Sotheby's Holding Cl A

BMTI,BioMimetic Therapeutics Inc

BONT,Bon-Ton Stores Inc

CATY,Cathay General Bancorp

CDXS,Codexis Inc

CGNX,Cognex Corp

CGV,Cgg Veritas

CKEC,Carmike Cinemas

CLU,Cellu Tissue Holdings Inc

CMCO,Columbus Mckinnon Cp(Ny)

CMTL,Comtech Telecommun Corp

COCO,Corinthian Colleges Inc

CPLA,Capella Education Company

CRAY,Cray Incorporated

CRXL,Crucell Nv Ads

DDMX,Dynamex Inc

DGII,Digi International Inc

DGIT,Dg Fastchannel Inc

DHIL,Diamond Hill Investment Group Inc

DHX,Dice Holdings Inc

DIN,Dineequity Inc

DMAN,DemandTec Inc

DSW,DSW Inc

DUF,Duff & Phelps Corp

EBIX,Ebix Inc

EDMC,Education Management

EPIC,Epicor Software Corp

ESI,Itt Educational Services

ETH,Ethan Allen Interiors

FMCN,Focus Media Holding Limited ADS

GBX,Greenbrier Companies Inc

GENT,Gentium SpA

GIFI,Gulf Island Fabrication

GPRE,Green Plains Renewable Energy

GTLS,Chart Industries Inc

GYMB,Gymboree Corp

HAWK,Seahawk Drilling Incorporated

HNR,Harvest Natural Resources Inc

HOS,Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc

HWKN,Hawkins Chemical Inc

ID,L-1 Identity Solutions Inc

IL,Intralinks Holdings` Inc.

INCY,Incyte Corp

INET,Internet Brands` Inc. 

IOSP,Innospec Inc

IVN,Ivanhoe Mines Ltd

JASO,Ja Solar Hldgs Co Ads

JBL,Jabil Circuit Inc

JCP,J.C. Penney Company Inc

JDSU,JDS Uniphase Corp

JOBS,51job Inc Ads

KCP,Kenneth Cole Productions

KEI,Keithley Instruments Inc

KITD,Kit Digital Inc

KMX,Carmax Inc

KNOT,The Knot Inc

KNXA,Kenexa Corp

KVHI,Kvh Industries Inc

LBY,Libbey Inc

LCRY,Lecroy Corp

LDK,LDK Solar Co Ltd

LGL,LGL Group Inc

LINTA,Liberty Media Interactive Class A

LOPE,Grand Canyon Education

LULU,Lululemon Athletica Inc.

LYTS,Lsi Industries Inc

MAPP,MAP Pharmaceuticals

MDVN,Medivation Inc

MEAS,Measurement Specialities

MEDQ,Medquist Inc

MIM,Mi Developments Inc

MIPS,Mips Technologies Inc

MOTR,Motricity Inc

MSB,Mesabi Trust Cbi

MSCC,Microsemi Corp

MSFG,Mainsource Fncl Goup Inc

MSSR,McCormick & Schmicks Seafood

MXWL,Maxwell Technologies Inc

MYE,Myers Industries Inc

NVTL,Novatel Wireless Inc

NZ,Netezza Corporation

OCLR,Oclaro Incorporated

OICO,Oi Corp

OMAB,Grupo Aeroportuario Del Centro

ONE,Higher One Holdings Inc

PBH,Prestige Brands Holdings

PEGA,Pegasystems Inc

PGI,Premiere Global Services Inc

QLTY,Quality Distribution

QNST,QuinStreet Incorporated

RAX,Rackspace Hosting

RDWR,Radware Ltd

RECN,Rscs Connection

RVI,Retail Ventures Inc

SCOR,Comscore Inc

SCS,Steelcase Inc

SCVL,Shoe Carnival Inc

SGEN,Seattle Genetic

SGK,Schawk Inc

SNIC,Sonic Solutions

STEL,Stellarone Corp

STRT,Strattec Security Cp

STU,Student Loan Corp

SURW,Sure West Communications

SVNT,Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc

SWIR,Sierra Wireless Inc

TESS,Tessco Technologies Inc

TGA,Transglobe Energy Corp

THMD,Thermadyne Hldgs Corp

THO,Thor Industries Inc

THRX,Theravance Inc

TPCG,TPC Group Inc

TQNT,Triquint Semiconductor

TRGL,Toreador Resources Corp

TWI,Titan Internat Inc

TZOO,Travelzoo Inc

VHC,Virnetx Hldg Corp

VSEC,Vse Corp

WNC,Wabash National Corp

ZGEN,Zymogenetics Inc

ZNH,China Southern Airlns Co

ZUMZ,Zumiez Inc

 

Daily Bootcamp

 

EP

Top25 b/o

IPO b/o

MM

The most comprehensive analysis posted on Timeline by 7 am tomorrow has chance to win free copy of following books:

One Good Trade

Ahead of The Market

The Heretics of Finance

Active Value Investing

Market Breadth Indicator

If you seriously do this for next few weeks you will have mastered the methods and process. Follow the guidelines don't add outside elements.

The new members should definitely try this. This will help you immensely. And will cut down your learning curve....

Don't worry about being wrong...

We were all beginners sometime .....

Setting up RSI2 in Telechart

 

Someone had requested scans for RSI2 and how to set it up in Telechart. 
 
The original post for this is here : Exhaustion Swing Trading Method using RSI2
 
This is a method I discussed in Swing Trading Bootcamp. It has been developed by Larry Connors.
 
I do not trade it , so I do not have expertise on it. 
 
This is for information purpose and those who want to perfect it from here on.
 
Must read the original posts and comments to understand this. 
 
RSI2 Bullish PCF

(50 * (C - XAVGC3.1) / 2 / (.500030519440884 * (ABS(C - C1) + .5 * (ABS(C1 - C2) + .5 * (ABS(C2 - C3) + .5 * (ABS(C3 - C4) + .5 * (ABS(C4 - C5) + .5 * (ABS(C5 - C6) + .5 * (ABS(C6 - C7) + .5 * (ABS(C7 - C8) + .5 * (ABS(C8 - C9) + .5 * (ABS(C9 - C10) + .5 * (ABS(C10 - C11) + .5 * (ABS(C11 - C12) + .5 * (ABS(C12 - C13) + .5 * (ABS(C13 - C14)))))))))))))))) + 50)<=2 and c>=avgc200

RSI2 Bearish PCF

(50 * (C - XAVGC3.1) / 2 / (.500030519440884 * (ABS(C - C1) + .5 * (ABS(C1 - C2) + .5 * (ABS(C2 - C3) + .5 * (ABS(C3 - C4) + .5 * (ABS(C4 - C5) + .5 * (ABS(C5 - C6) + .5 * (ABS(C6 - C7) + .5 * (ABS(C7 - C8) + .5 * (ABS(C8 - C9) + .5 * (ABS(C9 - C10) + .5 * (ABS(C10 - C11) + .5 * (ABS(C11 - C12) + .5 * (ABS(C12 - C13) + .5 * (ABS(C13 - C14)))))))))))))))) + 50)>=98 and c=<avgc200

RSI2 Chart Indicator (add under indicator)



50 * (C - XAVGC3.1) / 2 / (.500030519440884 * (ABS(C - C1) + .5 * (ABS(C1 - C2) + .5 * (ABS(C2 - C3) + .5 * (ABS(C3 - C4) + .5 * (ABS(C4 - C5) + .5 * (ABS(C5 - C6) + .5 * (ABS(C6 - C7) + .5 * (ABS(C7 - C8) + .5 * (ABS(C8 - C9) + .5 * (ABS(C9 - C10) + .5 * (ABS(C10 - C11) + .5 * (ABS(C11 - C12) + .5 * (ABS(C12 - C13) + .5 * (ABS(C13 - C14)))))))))))))))) + 50

Liquidity Volume



MINV3.1 >= 1000

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