Articles from 2007

Stocks 100% above 200 day moving average

From Ask Bill O'Neil

"If a stock is 100% over its 200-day moving average, when would this be considered a valid sell signal?

As a general rule, some stocks may be sold when they are 70% to 100% or more above their 200-day moving average line. In this situation, however, the right time to sell depends a lot on the market environment. If you own a stock that is 100% or more above its 200-day (or even 50-day) moving average, you must ask yourself first and foremost: "Where are we in the bull cycle, and where is the stock within its pattern?" For example, if a stock breaks out of its first-stage base on huge volume and runs like mad for three weeks, then finds itself 150% above its 200-day moving average, this is viewed more as a sign of strength early in the move. Therefore, you would probably want to play this one out. If a stock has broken out of its third or fourth base and is also 150% above its 200-day moving average while the market has been in a bull move for nine months or more, it might be a good idea to consider booking some profits. Such rules should always be employed within the context of where you are in a stock's and the market's move. From late 1999 to March 2000, dozens of leading tech stocks went into climax runs, one of the most reliable topping signals. So selling at that time was the correct move. The current market is a lot different. Hundreds of quality stocks have broken out to new 52-week and all-time highs. But as always, continue to pay attention to the action of both the market and the leading stocks. Be on the lookout for the presence of additional sell signals.

Sometime back IBD had a article saying their studies of past leaders indicate that they tend to top on an average 110% above 200 day MA. So the sell above 100% of 200 day MA is not automatic rule, but when you see lot of stocks in a sector 100% above 200 day MA, most of the time, there is a high probability of correction. Shipping sector in October had this kind of action and also a churn at top of the range. A high volume churn at top of range is another topping signal IBD talks about a lot. So when a stock you are holding is 100% above 200 day MA, you need to move stops quickly to lock in profit and watch for other topping signals.

The best guide to when to sell is on IBD site:

When To Sell Stocks To Take Profits

CALM Earnings

CALM : second-quarter net income jumped to $40.2 million, or $1.69 a share, from $6.4 million, or 27 cents a share, a year earlier. The Jackson, Miss., egg producer said revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 1 rose 62% to $223.7 million from $137.7 million a year earlier, due to strong demand for fresh eggs at the retail and food service levels, as well as for eggs used for liquid, frozen and dried egg products. Shares of Cal-Maine Foods closed down 32 cents at $25.85 on Thursday.


This looks like blowout earnings. But stocks has been rallying for sometime and can go either way. Keep on your radar. This is morning earnings release. Egg prices tend to be volatile and this stock has very high short interest . 37% of float is short. Float is 14 million.

Related post: How to trade earnings

When are stocks vulnerable to correction

Yesterday I said solar energy sector and fertiliser sector stocks are vulnerable to correction at these level. Similarly I had warned about shipping sector before it topped. One of the easiest way to figure out which stock is vulnerable to correction is to look at "Price vs 200 Moving Average" . When the stock is up 100% or more from 200 moving average (which on Telechart sort means value of 200 plus) , it is vulnerable to correction.

IBD studis of top performing stocks show that they top at around 110% from the 200 day MA. From time to time IBD talks about this sell rule.

If you sort the All Stocks list by "Price vs 200 Moving Average" , you will notice most of the stocks with 190 plus readings are solar and fertiliser stocks.



Stocks up 100% plus from 200 day MA

CSIQ,Canadian Solar Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
EMKR,Emcore Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FSIN,Fushi Intl Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FSLR,First Solar Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
JASO,Ja Solar Hldgs Co Ads (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
LUNA,Luna Innovations Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MOS,Mosaic Company (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MTL,Mechel Steel Group OAO ADS (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
QSC,Questcor Pharmaceuticals (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RICK,Rick's Caberet Intl (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RIGL,Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SOLF,Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SPIR,Spire Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
STP,Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ZIXI,Zix Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart

Another thing which signals likelihood of correction in a stock is climax move. Moves of 50% plus in a month on a stock which already has been rallying, typically lead to correction in the stock in next small time frame.

Stocks up 50% plus in a month

ARTW,Art's-Way Manufacturing (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ASTI,Ascent Solar Technologies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ASTIZ,Ascent Solar Technologies` Inc. (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
AVR,Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BMTI,BioMimetic Therapeutics Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
BRKR,Bruker Biosciences Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CHNR,ChinaNatural Resources (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CSIQ,Canadian Solar Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CSUN,China Sunergy Co Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
CTDC,China Technology Development Group Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ECHO,Electronic Clearing House (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
EMKR,Emcore Corporation (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ESLR,Evergreen Solar Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
FSIN,Fushi Intl Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HES,Hess Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HOKU,Hoku Scientific Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
HRBN,Harbin Electric Inc. (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
IRW,Ibt Bancorp Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
JASO,Ja Solar Hldgs Co Ads (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
JRCC,James River Coal Company (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
LDK,LDK Solar Co Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
LEAP,Leap Wireless International Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
MELI,Mercadolibre Inc. (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
NEXT,Nextest Systems Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PFB,Pff Bancorp Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
PTT,Vcg Holding Copr (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RICK,Rick's Caberet Intl (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RIGL,Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
RZ,Raser Technologies Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SDTH,Shengdatech Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SOLF,Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SPIR,Spire Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
SVNT,Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
TSL,Trina Solar Ltd. (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
ULBI,Ultralife Batteries Inc (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
USBE,US Bioenergy Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
VSE,VeraSun Energy Corp (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart
YGE,Yingli Green Energy Hlds Co (Google  Yahoo  Earnings  Chart

Market Roundup

Market Monitor: Bearish
Market has been in year end rally mode for last 5 days of selling. This momentum has probability of lasting for couple of weeks. A 300 plus down day will again put us back in cautious mode. However the stocks up 50% plus in a month reading are already in 20 plus territory, which indicate a possibility of a correction in next shorter time frame.

As Tuesday was half trading day and volume was very low, there are not many stocks in scans. Thin volume conditions will likely continue. Corrections have a nasty habit of showing up post holidays and in such thin environment it can wipe out profit quickly. Stocks like CSIQ, RICK, FSLR, MOS, JASO, MTL, SVNT, SDTH, etc are vulnerable to nasty correction at this level. If you are holding stocks up 50% plus in a month, be careful. Such momentum has a history of nasty reversals. Especially if the stock is also up 100% plus in last 260 days and is now up 50% plus in a month, in most cases it indicates climax.
Following stocks are up 50% plus in a month.



ANGN,Angeion Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ARTW,Art's-Way Manufacturing (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ASTI,Ascent Solar Technologies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ASTIZ,Ascent Solar Technologies` Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ATVI,Activision Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BMTI,BioMimetic Therapeutics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CDTI,Clean Diesel Technologies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CSIQ,Canadian Solar Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CSUN,China Sunergy Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ECHO,Electronic Clearing House (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EMKR,Emcore Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FSIN,Fushi Intl Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GNSS,Genesis Microchip Inc Delaware (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GPRE,Green Plains Renewable Energy (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HRBN,Harbin Electric Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
IRW,Ibt Bancorp Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
JRCC,James River Coal Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LDK,LDK Solar Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LEAP,Leap Wireless International Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LNN,Lindsay Manufacturing Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NEXT,Nextest Systems Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PFB,Pff Bancorp Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PRKR,Parkervision Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RICK,Rick's Caberet Intl (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RIGL,Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SDTH,Shengdatech Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SOLF,Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SPIR,Spire Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SVNT,Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TIVO,Tivo Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TWP,Trex Co Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
USBE,US Bioenergy Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VSE,VeraSun Energy Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VSL,Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
XIDE,Exide Tech (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
YGE,Yingli Green Energy Hlds Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)

Happy Holidays

On my current reading list

The Last Tycoons: The Secret History of Lazard Frères & Co. by William D. Cohan

King of the Club: Richard Grasso and the Survival of the New York Stock Exchange by Charles Gasparino

Hedge Hunters: Hedge Fund Masters on the Rewards, the Risk, and the Reckoning by Katherine Burton

A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market by Jim Rogers

The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm by Robert F. Bruner and Sean D. Carr

The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World by Alan Greenspan

The Surgeons: Life and Death in a Top Heart Center by Charles R. Morris

The Dick Davis Dividend: Straight Talk on Making Money from 40 Years on Wall Street
by Dick Davis

Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets by Vitaliy N. Katsenelson

Trading Momentum

Both Double Trouble (DT) and IBD 200 are essentially momentum systems.

Double Trouble is a single factor or single variable momentum system. It uses just momentum to select trading vehicle. The underlying hypothesis is the current momentum will persist for some time. So we enter a vehicle running at "100 miles per hour" when it has "a slight pause". You are not really looking at the underlying reason for the momentum. The stop manages the risk in case of reversal of momentum. The time stop ensures one does not get stuck in the pause phase for long. Actual implementation of the method is some part strategy, some part tactics and some part artistry. You can think of many ways of trading the basis strategy of playing momentum.

IBD 200 is also a momentum system. But it is multi factor or multi variable momentum system. It uses two momentum variables: price momentum and sector momentum. In addition it uses number of financial variables. If you look at them they are broadly earnings growth, earnings quality, and earnings sustainability. Earnings growth variable is in the form of EPS ranking or EPS growth. Earnings quality is represented by sales growth and longer term earnings growth. Earnings sustainability is represented by margin and ROE. Now these "financial factors" are married with sector momentum and price momentum to arrive at top 200 stocks. The implicit hypothesis is that buy momentum but only in good quality stocks.

Now one can argue the second approach is better than the first and IBD 200 is better than DT. IBD 200 seems more logical. But in reality what happens in markets is sometimes good earnings or growth stocks do well, sometime value stock do well, sometime small caps do well, sometime large caps do well, sometime concept stock with no earnings do well. DT finds a common character amongst all these, that is momentum. Plus because it calculates momentum differently from the IBD approach a turnaround play will be in DT while it might not be in IBD 200 for long time.

Hence a combination approach ensures you do not miss out on major opportunities.

Stocks up 50% or more in a month

As of today there are 21 stocks up 50% or more in a month. All these stocks were priced above 5 dollars a month ago, so it removes low priced stocks which can make large moves in short time period.
AVR,Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BMTI,BioMimetic Therapeutics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CDTI,Clean Diesel Technologies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CSIQ,Canadian Solar Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CSUN,China Sunergy Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EMKR,Emcore Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FSIN,Fushi Intl Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GNSS,Genesis Microchip Inc Delaware (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HOKU,Hoku Scientific Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
IRW,Ibt Bancorp Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
JRCC,James River Coal Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LDK,LDK Solar Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RICK,Rick's Caberet Intl (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RIGL,Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SDTH,Shengdatech Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SOLF,Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SVNT,Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
USBE,US Bioenergy Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
USS,Us Shipping Partners (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VSE,VeraSun Energy Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VSNT,Versant Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)

Bulk of the stocks in this list are from the Alternative Energy sector. It has been the number one ranked sector in last few weeks. The Alternative energy sector has lot of favorable factors supporting its rally. High oil price is one, policy changes in Europe is another, and recent energy bill in USA is another.

If you look at the stocks up 25% plus in a month, currently there are 92 stocks in my database which are up 25% plus. Again they were priced 5 plus a month ago.
ABH,AbitibiBowater Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ABII,Abraxis Bioscience Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AGO,Assured Guaranty Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ALOY,Alloy Online Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ANH,Anworth Mtg Asset Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ARII,American Railroad Industries Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ARTW,Art's-Way Manufacturing (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ARXT,Adams Respiratory Therapeutics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ASTIZ,Ascent Solar Technologies` Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ATVI,Activision Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AVR,Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AXCA,Axcan Pharma Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
AYI,Acuity Brands (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BMRN,Biomarin Pharmaceuticals (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BMTI,BioMimetic Therapeutics Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BRKR,Bruker Biosciences Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BTH,Blyth Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
BWTR,Basin Water Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CDTI,Clean Diesel Technologies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CHNR,ChinaNatural Resources (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CITP,Comsys It Partners Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CLDN,Celadon Group Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CLF,Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CMGI,CMGI Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CMO,Capstead Mortgage Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CRDC,Cardica (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CSIQ,Canadian Solar Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
CSUN,China Sunergy Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DECK,Deckers Outdoor Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
DRRX,Durect Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EICU,Visicu Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
EMKR,Emcore Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
ENZ,Enzo Biochem Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FCEL,Fuelcell Energy Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FNM,Fannie Mae (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
FSIN,Fushi Intl Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GLYT,Genlyte Group Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GMCR,Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GNSS,Genesis Microchip Inc Delaware (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
GRO,Agria Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HES,Hess Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HINT,Hill International Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HOKU,Hoku Scientific Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
HRBN,Harbin Electric Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
INCY,Incyte Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
IRW,Ibt Bancorp Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
JASO,Ja Solar Hldgs Co Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
JCG,J Crew Group Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
JRCC,James River Coal Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
JRT,JER Investors Trust Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
LDK,LDK Solar Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MASI,Masimo Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MEI,Methode Electronics Cl A (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MELI,Mercadolibre Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MGAM,Multimedia Games Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MGPI,Mgp Ingredients Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MIPI,Molecular Insight Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MNTA,Momenta Pharma (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MOGN,Mgi Pharma Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
MOS,Mosaic Company (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NEXT,Nextest Systems Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
NZ,Netezza Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
OME,Omega Protein Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
OSG,Overseas Shipholding Grp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PFB,Pff Bancorp Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PRKR,Parkervision Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
PWRD,Perfect World Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RDEA,Ardea Biosciences Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
REGN,Regeneron Pharm Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RICK,Rick's Caberet Intl (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RIGL,Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
RZ,Raser Technologies Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SBH,Sally Beauty Holdings Inc. (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SDTH,Shengdatech Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SEAC,Seachange Internat Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SOLF,Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SSYS,Stratasys Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
STP,Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
SVNT,Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TIVO,Tivo Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TRLG,True Religion Apparel Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TT,Trane Inc (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
TTWO,Take-Two Intera Software (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
UAPH,Uap Holding Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
USBE,US Bioenergy Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
USS,Us Shipping Partners (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VSE,VeraSun Energy Corp (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VSL,Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ads (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
VSNT,Versant Corporation (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
WFR,Memc Electronic Material (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
XIDE,Exide Tech (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)
YGE,Yingli Green Energy Hlds Co (Google Yahoo Earnings Chart)


One of the ways to use this information is to find new sector and stock trends. Given a catalyst, stocks breakout and move rapidly in short time frame. Such stocks then consolidate and have next set of breakouts. That is how multi month rallies start out.

So here is a simple scan for those with Telechart to find tommorrow's leaders.
Price a month ago was greater than 5
C21 >= 5

Price % change in a month is greater than 20%
For this Telechart has a pre loaded scan called "Price Percent Change 1 month"
100*(c-c21)/c21
Value for this has to be over 20

Volume greater than 100000

Capitalization greater than 100 million
This ensures the more speculative stocks get eliminated.

Now if you add all these conditions together in Easyscan, you get a list of stocks up 20% plus in a month.
There are many ways you can slice and dice this list:
  1. Sort by Price Growth Rate 1 year or Percent Change 26 weeks. The one at top are already in rally mode and stock with high relative strength. Those with lower values are just starting out rallies or dead cat bounces.
  2. Sort by Price 1 year range. You can then look at those near top of range and those at bottom. A stock within 40 plus range is a good bet for follow through or pullback buy. Those below 40 are probably dead cat bounce or good for value investors.
Stocks at both end of range spectrum make 25% or 50% moves. Buying both 52 week low and high can get you a 25% plus move on a shorter time frame.

Now to take this further you can look at how many 2%, 4%, 6% , 8%, or 10% plus moves the stock had in its 20% plus moves. Where did they happen and what do they indicate about continuation of possible short term momentum.

Studying stocks categorized by % growth on various time frames can give you a very good insight in to behavior of stocks and momentum on various time frames. Some time frames to study are:
  1. Stocks up 100% plus in a year
  2. Stocks up 300% plus in a year
  3. Stocks up 1000% plus in a year
  4. Stocks up 25% plus in a quarter
  5. Stocks down 25% plus in a quarter
  6. Stocks up 25% plus in a month
  7. Stocks down 25% plus in a month

Very soon we will be in the earnings season

Very soon we will be in the earnings season. As all of you know I have written extensively on this topic and detailed what is involved in it. If you really apply yourself , you can easily find 5 to 10 very good trades during earnings season. Trades which will give you anywhere between 20 to 100% plus returns in few months post entry. This is one method if you master, it gives you dividend 4 times in a year.

The trick in this is to prepare well in advance and think through what you want to achieve . Some traps people fall in to while trading earnings are:

1 Making it very complex. I have seen spreadsheets so complex to track earnings, that I don't know what the trader is trying to achieve. When the earnings spreadsheet was up I use to get so many request for adding column or information to it that it would have easily become 100 column spreadsheet.

2 Trying group collaboration. It does not work. If you want to trade this and want to really make money, forget depending upon someone to update the databases. Do it yourself. I do this entire thing without spreadsheet, I just write earnings next to symbols on a small pad and feed selected list in watch list for next day.

3 Searching for perfect sources of information. Please understand it is what it is. For retail traders there are no easily available and timely source of information. So within the constrains one has to innovate. There is sufficient opportunity to exploit in spite of limited databases.

4 Falling in love with a stock. A stock might show 10000% growth and if it is not surprise to market, it will not react or go down.

5 Not ready both mentally and in terms of method well before the earnings season. You have to do all the thinking and planning before earnings season, if you want to trade this method. Bull market, bear market earnings trade works.


How To Trade Earnings
How to trade earnings Part2
How to trade earnings Part3
Earnings and Bulkowski
Improving odds in earnings breakout
Earnings Season- Time to be very careful...
Earnings and Dan Zanger
Earning Surprise System for $1495
Trading Earnings Breakouts
Earnings Acceleration- Long Term Impact
Trading Earnings Breakout -Part1
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part2
Trading Earnings Breakouts -Part3


Market Monitor

  • The Market Monitor spent just one day (12/10/2007) in green territory before turning red again.
  • In last 5 days we have had 4 negative days and 3 of them with 300 plus readings.
  • Readings on stocks down 25% plus in 65 days are at highest level in last 16 days.
  • The readings on stocks up 100% plus are steadily declining.
  • Yesterday saw profit taking in leaders which were holding on to gain.
  • The news is bleak with talk of recession and stagflation dominating.
  • However with 5 days of selling behind us a reflex rally might be a possible scenario here.
  • A ideal scenario wold be more panic selling which drives reading on some of the things like stocks down 100% plus and stocks up 25% plus in 65 days to extreme levels from which sustainable bounce develops.
  • But I will not be surprised if we get bounce at this level. The Feds across the world are coordinating a massive intervention in financial markets and that should provide an impetus for a "don't fight the Fed rally".

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